Racing Santander 5 x 1 Almeria

Racing Santander host Almería at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in a 2025/26 Week 35 fixture that feels tighter than the odds suggest. Home advantage is clear on the stats, with Racing listed as the favourite on the board (2.20) and Almería next (2.70), with a 3.40 draw.

Total goals: Over 2.5 is priced, while Over 1.5 is 1.15 and Over 0.5 is virtually a given (1.03). The xG picture supports a mid-to-high scoring clash: Racing xG at home 1.79, Almería away xG 1.45, total expected around 3.24.

BTTS: Yes is 1.47, reflecting a 65% average BTTS rate between the two teams historically.

Corners: This tends to be a high-corners game. Over 7.5, Over 9.5, and Over 10.5all sit in play given a long-run average of around 10.59 corners per match between the sides.

Double chance: Racing Win or Draw 1.30; Almería Win or Draw 1.57. Home strength is material: Racing win rate at home about 65% vs Almería’s away win-rate around 35%.

Why this looks right: Racing’s home numbers are the strongest signal here. The home-side attack is the bigger engine (home xG 1.79) and their overall home advantage index is solid (attack +14, defense +10). Almería away tend to be modest in xG for and against, and the head-to-head suggests a contest that can swing on a single moment rather than a dour stalemate.

Predictions and key bets

Likeliest outcome: Racing Santander win or draw (double chance 1.30). If you must pick a result, a narrow 1-1 or 2-1 is plausible given the scoring angles.

BTTS: Yes looks strong given the 65% baseline and the xG profile.

Total goals: Over 2.5 is a solid target (given xG and averages).

Corners: Over 9.5 or Over 10.5 corners offer value in a game expected to feature frequent width-and-swing play.

Quick score-range guidance: expect a feel of 1-1 to 2-1 in favor of Racing if they press from the start. First-half goal pressure is historically high here (Over 0.5 goals in the first half around 74%), so early drama is well within the odds.