Casa x Fora

Mirassol vs Grêmio • 2026 season • Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Status: preview • Kick-off: 03 Aug

Odds: Mirassol 2.26 | Draw 3.20 | Grêmio 3.21

Over 0.5 Goals: 1.03 • Over 1.5 Goals: 1.42 • Over 2.5 Goals: 2.25 • Over 3.5 Goals: 4.05 • Over 4.5 Goals: 9.00

BTTS Yes: 2.00 • BTTS No: 1.78

Mirassol Clean Sheets Yes: 2.30 • No: 1.55

Grêmio Clean Sheets Yes: 3.55 • No: 1.25

Double Chance: Mirassol Win or Draw 1.28 • Grêmio Win or Draw 1.64

Corners: Over 7.5 1.33 • Over 8.5 1.63 • Under 7.5 2.89 • Under 8.5 2.13

Why this feels balanced — Mirassol’s home form is gold: 80% win rate at home, a clear edge when the roof is over their heads. Grêmio travel with a tougher away profile: 25% win, 50% loss, and away xG, with an away goal conceded around 1.99 per game. The numbers hint at a game that could open up, but with Mirassol’s home edge, they’ll want control of the tempo.

Key numbers to watch

Expected total xG for this fixture sits around 3.13 (above the 2.50 season average), suggesting there could be goals.

Mirassol’s attack at home shows a local advantage (xG around 1.49 at home) and a strong outright win percentage.

Grêmio’s away profile includes higher defensive vulnerability (xG against away ~1.99) and lower than ideal away conversion, which could invite pressure on the break.

Average corners per match between these teams is near 9; betting angles around 7.5–8.5 corners are plausible.

Average BTTS setup is 50% across both teams, so a Yes result is a fair punt, but not a lock.

Predictions & angles

Result: Mirassol win or draw (1.28) is the safer angle given home strength and Grêmio’s travel metrics.

Goals: Over 2.5 goals (2.25) is a reasonable bet if the match opens up; Over 1.5 goals (1.42) also has value, given xG totals.

BTTS: Yes (2.00) is plausible; a coin-flip level probability, aligned with the 50% average BTTS.

Corners: If you’re chasing a clean stat, Over 8.5 corners (1.63) and Over 7.5 (1.33) offer viable angles, given the near-9 per match average.

Bottom line — expect a disciplined home performance from Mirassol with Grêmio chasing chances on the road. The market leans to a compact, open encounter rather than a smash-and-grab, so multi-angle bets (Double Chance + Over/BTTS) look sensible.

Mostrar tudo